The Default Library
Paths / Path 06

Think Clearly

The tools for not being fooled: by others, by numbers, by machines, or by yourself.

For: anyone who reads the news, uses social media, or has to make decisions.

15readings
1.6 hoursof reading
3stages
4 quick reads · 10 reads · 1 deep dive
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Stage 1

Start

4 readings · 16 min
  1. 01ReadQuiz5 min

    The Biases That Fool Everyone

    The biases that fool everyone, including you.
  2. 02Quick readInteractiveQuiz3 min

    Why Exponential Growth Rules Everything

    Exponential growth rules pandemics, debt and technology; humans don't feel it.
  3. 03Quick readInteractiveQuiz4 min

    Probability: How to Not Fool Yourself

    Probability: the maths of not fooling yourself.
  4. 04Quick readQuiz4 min

    How to Make a Hard Decision

    A method for hard decisions.
Stage 2

Understand

6 readings · 34 min
  1. 05ReadQuiz5 min

    Statistics for Reading the World

    Statistics for reading the world (and spotting misleading charts).
  2. 06ReadInteractiveQuiz6 min

    Bayes' Theorem and Positive Tests

    Why a positive test often doesn't mean what you think.
  3. 07ReadQuiz6 min

    Bayesian Thinking for Everyday Life

    Bayesian thinking: updating your mind the right amount.
  4. 08ReadInteractiveQuiz6 min

    Thinking in Systems

    Systems thinking: why fixes backfire.
  5. 09ReadQuiz5 min

    Why You Understand Less Than You Think

    You understand less than you think, and that is useful to know.
  6. 10ReadQuiz6 min

    Propaganda, Misinformation & How to Resist It

    Propaganda and misinformation: how they work and how to resist them.
Stage 3

Go deep

5 readings · 43 min
  1. 11ReadQuiz5 min

    Critical Thinking & Epistemic Hygiene: How to Spot Bullshit in the AI Era

    Critical thinking in the age of AI.
  2. 12ReadQuiz5 min

    First-Principles Thinking: Deconstructing Problems to Fundamental Truths

    First-principles thinking.
  3. 13Quick readQuiz4 min

    What Is a Good Argument?

    What a good argument is.
  4. 14ReadQuiz5 min

    Epistemology: How Do We Know What Is Actually True?

    Epistemology: how do we know anything?
  5. 15Deep diveQuiz24 min

    How Do We Know Anything? Hume, Popper, Kuhn and the Problem of Science

    Hume, Popper and Kuhn: how science knows, and where it struggles.
When you finish

Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman); Superforecasting (Tetlock).

Next path →

People and Living Together

Listening, disagreeing, apologising, friendship, and the small practical skills of a shared life.