Follows: Adulthood Isn't the Finish Line · Aging Well: What Actually Changes and What Doesn't · the Careers series
In this deep dive
- What the longest study of adult life found
- Is there a midlife dip? The happiness curve and its critics
- Careers are built in chapters, not chosen once
- What compounds, and what doesn't
- What people regret, and when
- Designing a life: what the evidence supports
- Putting it together: a plan for the next ten years
In 1938, during the Great Depression, researchers at Harvard began following 268 sophomores, hoping to learn what leads to a healthy, happy life. The early researchers believed physical constitution, intelligence and personality would decide how a life turned out, and measured them in detail. They even took measurements of the men's skulls.
A second group of 456 men who grew up in poor inner-city Boston neighbourhoods was later folded in. Over the decades, researchers kept asking both groups about their work, home lives and health. They interviewed the men in their living rooms, collected their medical records, drew their blood, scanned their brains, talked to their children, and eventually invited their wives to join the study.
When the fourth director of what's now called the Harvard Study of Adult Development, the psychiatrist Robert Waldinger, summarised it in a 2015 talk that has been viewed nearly 44 million times, he didn't talk about skulls, IQ or social class. His summary was one line:
"Good relationships keep us happier and healthier. Period." — Robert Waldinger, TEDx talk, 2015
Adulthood Isn't the Finish Line showed that different abilities peak decades apart, and Aging Well showed that emotional well-being often improves with age. The Careers series looked at what particular jobs are actually like. This piece puts those together and asks a bigger question: if a life runs for 80 years or more, what does the evidence say about playing it well over the long run?
Part 1 — What the longest study of adult life found
Two groups of men, eight decades
The Harvard study is really two studies. The Grant Study followed 268 Harvard men from the classes of 1939 to 1944. The Glueck Study followed 456 men who grew up in inner-city Boston. Between them, they cover a wide range of fortunes, though, importantly, only men in the original cohorts. More recently the researchers began including the men's wives, and a Second Generation study now follows their children.
The study has had four directors, and each era reflected its time. Under the first, the emphasis was on physical constitution and inherited traits. The psychiatrist George Vaillant, who led it from 1972 to 2004, came to emphasise the crucial role of relationships, and how men coped with life's ups and downs. Waldinger, the fourth director, has extended the study to the men's wives and children.
The finding about relationships
Waldinger's TED talk and the 2017 Harvard Gazette account of the study set out three lessons:
- Social connection is good for us, and loneliness is harmful. People who were more connected to family, friends and community were happier, physically healthier and lived longer.
- Quality matters more than quantity. High-conflict marriages without much affection turned out to be very bad for health, Waldinger said, perhaps worse than divorce.
- Good relationships protect the brain as well as the body. People in their 80s in securely attached relationships, who felt they could count on their partner, kept sharper memories for longer. The relationships didn't have to be smooth. Some couples bickered all the time but still felt they could count on each other.
The most quoted finding is about timing. As Waldinger put it to the Gazette: "The people who were the most satisfied in their relationships at age 50 were the healthiest at age 80." When the researchers looked back at what they knew about the men at 50, relationship satisfaction predicted their health in old age better than their cholesterol levels did.
He also noted something about retirement: the men who were happiest in retirement had actively worked to "replace workmates with new playmates."
Relationships at 50 predicted health at 80 better than cholesterol did. That's not a sentimental finding; it's what the data showed.
What the study can't tell you
The study is extraordinary, but it has real limits, and it's worth being honest about them.
- It's observational. Healthy, emotionally steady people may find it easier to build good relationships, rather than relationships causing health. The researchers try to account for this, but no observational study can fully rule it out.
- Its original participants were all men, born around 1920, living through a particular stretch of American history.
- "Relationships" is a broad word. The findings concern the quality of close ties, not the number of contacts on your phone.
The wider evidence
The Harvard findings fit a much larger body of research. In 2010, Holt-Lunstad, Smith and Layton pooled 148 studies covering 308,849 people and found that people with stronger social relationships had about 50% higher odds of survival over the follow-up periods. That effect was consistent across ages, sexes and initial health, and comparable to well-known risk factors for death. Those studies were observational too, but the pattern is consistent across very different populations.
If you want a long life that goes well, the evidence says to treat relationships as infrastructure, not decoration. We'll come back to what that means in practice in Part 4.
Part 2 — Is there a midlife dip? The happiness curve and its critics
You may have heard that happiness follows a U-shape over life: high in your twenties, sinking to a low in middle age, then rising again into old age. It's often offered as scientific proof of the midlife crisis. The real picture is more interesting, and genuinely disputed.
The case for the U
The economists David Blanchflower and Andrew Oswald made the case in 2008. Using data on about 500,000 randomly sampled Americans and Western Europeans, and holding income and other demographic factors constant, they found that a typical person's happiness reached its lowest point in middle age, for men and women on both sides of the Atlantic. They found similar U-shapes in 72 countries in total.
In 2021, Blanchflower extended the analysis to 145 countries, including 109 developing ones, and found the U-shape "everywhere," with the low point around age 50. He also noted that the age of that low point has risen over time in Europe and the United States.
There's even a striking animal parallel. In 2012, Alexander Weiss, Oswald and colleagues had people who knew the apes well rate the well-being of 508 great apes (chimpanzees and orangutans). The ratings formed the same U-shape over the apes' lives, suggesting that part of the pattern might be biological rather than purely about mortgages and careers.
In a 2023 reply to critics, Blanchflower, Carol Graham and Alan Piper counted 618 published studies that found a U-shape across 145 countries.
The case against
Other researchers think the U-shape is less solid than it looks.
In 2020, the psychologists Galambos, Krahn, Johnson and Lachman set out their objections:
- Most evidence for the U comes from cross-sectional data, snapshots comparing different people of different ages at one time. That can't show how any individual's happiness changes as they age.
- Longitudinal studies, which follow the same people, give mixed results.
- Other measures of well-being don't always show a U.
- When asked to look back, older adults tend to remember midlife as one of the better periods of their lives.
- Focusing on one average curve hides the variety of real paths through life.
Statistical choices matter too. Researchers including David Bartram have questioned the common practice of "holding constant" factors like income, marriage and health, which themselves change with age. Whether to include those controls is a live dispute, and leaving them out can change the shape. A 2020 study by Felix Bittmann using data from 81 countries found three distinct patterns rather than one: a U-shape in some countries, a steady decline in others, and a decline that levels off in old age in the rest. Countries with a steady decline were usually less developed. Using German panel data that followed the same people, Fabian Kratz and Josef Brüderl found a nearly steady decline in happiness with age once they had corrected for several sources of bias.
What both sides agree on
| Question | Where things stand |
|---|---|
| Do average happiness scores dip somewhere in midlife in many cross-sectional surveys? | Yes, widely found |
| Does that prove each person goes through a midlife slump? | No. Individual paths vary a great deal |
| Is the shape the same everywhere, under every method? | Disputed |
| Do older adults tend to report better emotional experience day to day? | Yes, as Aging Well described in Carstensen's research |
How to use this
The practical lesson doesn't depend on who wins the statistical argument. If you're in midlife and life feels heavy, you have plenty of company, and on many measures, including the emotional-experience research described in Aging Well, things often get better afterwards. The years in which work demands peak, children are young or teenage, and parents start to need care fall in the middle of life for many people. That load is real, and much of it eases with time.
And if you're younger, don't plan on a slump. Plan on a period of heavy load, and build up what helps people through it, such as friendships, savings, health and some flexibility in your work, before you need them.
Whether or not the U-curve is real for the average person, a heavy middle stretch is real for many. Build the support before you reach it.
Part 3 — Careers are built in chapters, not chosen once
The Careers series showed what a dozen jobs are actually like. Over a long life, though, most people don't have one career. They have a sequence of jobs, and often several distinct chapters.
What we actually know about job changes
You may have read that the average person changes careers five to seven times. Nobody knows that. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which tracks this more carefully than almost anyone, says it "never has attempted to estimate the number of times people change careers," because "no consensus has emerged on what constitutes a career change."
What it does measure is jobs, meaning periods of work with a single employer. In its August 2025 release, it reported that Americans born from 1957 to 1964 held an average of 12.9 jobs between ages 18 and 58. More than 40% of those jobs were held between 18 and 24, and job changes became less frequent with age: 5.6 jobs in the 18–24 stretch, falling to 2.2 between 45 and 54.
So early working life is often a period of churn and sampling. That's normal, and it's useful.
Career capital
How do you make the most of that churn? One useful idea is career capital. The career-advice organisation 80,000 Hours defines it as anything that builds up and puts you in a better position to do good work later. It lists five kinds:
| Type | Examples |
|---|---|
| Skills and knowledge | What you can actually do, and whether it will stay useful |
| Connections | People who could become collaborators, mentors or bridges to other fields |
| Credentials | Degrees, a track record, references, reputation |
| Character | Traits like integrity that make people trust you |
| Runway | How long you could live without income, which makes risky moves possible |
Cal Newport made a related argument in So Good They Can't Ignore You, subtitled Why Skills Trump Passion in the Quest for Work You Love. His claim is that passion for work often follows from becoming very good at something valuable, rather than coming first.
Finding out by doing
Herminia Ibarra studied professionals and managers in the middle of career changes for her book Working Identity (2003, updated in 2023). Her central finding goes against standard career advice. The usual approach is to work out what you want first, then act. Ibarra argues this is backwards. Knowing comes from doing: people who reinvent themselves successfully do it by experimenting with new kinds of work, spending time with new networks of people, and making sense of what they learn as they go.
This fits a 2021 study by Lu Liu and colleagues of the careers of artists, film directors and scientists. They looked at hot streaks, runs of unusually high-impact work. Before a hot streak, people tended to explore a wide range of styles or topics. Once it began, they became much more focused. Neither exploring alone nor focusing alone predicted a hot streak. What mattered was the sequence: explore, then exploit.
It's not too late
If you're past your twenties and worried that you've missed your chance, two findings may help.
- In 2020, Pierre Azoulay, Benjamin Jones, J. Daniel Kim and Javier Miranda studied US start-ups using government data. Among the fastest-growing one in a thousand new companies, the founders' average age at founding was 45. Prior experience in the same industry strongly predicted success.
- Adulthood Isn't the Finish Line showed that several abilities, including vocabulary and reading other people, peak in middle age or later.
Early career is for sampling and building capital; later career is for spending it. The worst move is to stop building.
For a structured way to start exploring, Choosing a Career Without Guessing in the Careers series matches interests to jobs. Ibarra's advice is to treat its results as hypotheses to test with small experiments, not as answers.
Part 4 — What compounds, and what doesn't
"Compounding" has become a self-help slogan: invest in yourself and the returns will snowball. It's worth being precise about which parts of life genuinely compound, which don't, and which work in other ways.
Money: the real thing
Money is the one area where compounding works exactly as the maths says. Compound Interest in the finance series explains the mechanism. Here's what it means over a lifetime.
Suppose you put $200 a month into investments that grow at 5% a year after inflation, and stop at 65. (That rate is an illustration, not a forecast. Real returns vary, and markets can fall for years.)
| Start at | Total you put in | Value at 65 (in today's money) |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | $96,000 | about $296,500 |
| 35 | $72,000 | about $163,100 |
| 45 | $48,000 | about $81,200 |
Starting ten years earlier means putting in only a third more money but ending with nearly twice as much. That's compounding: in the early years, growth earns growth for longer. Investing Without Gambling covers how to do this sensibly.
Health: front-loaded, not exponential
Health doesn't compound like money. The pattern is closer to "the first steps count the most."
In 2019, Ulf Ekelund and colleagues pooled data from eight studies of 36,383 adults (average age about 63) who wore activity trackers, and followed them for a median of about six years. Compared with the least active quarter of people:
| Activity level | Relative risk of dying during follow-up |
|---|---|
| Least active quarter | 1.00 (reference) |
| Second quarter | 0.48 |
| Third quarter | 0.34 |
| Most active quarter | 0.27 |
The biggest drop came from moving out of the least active group. Each further step helped less. These are observational data, and people who are already ill tend to move less, which can exaggerate the gap. But the shape, steep at first and then flattening, suggests that getting from nothing to something is the most valuable health move there is.
Health does accumulate, though. Strength, fitness and good habits built in midlife are what you draw on in later decades, as Aging Well and What Exercise Actually Does to You describe. Think of it less as compound interest and more as a pension: steady contributions, paid out later.
Skills: fast at first, then slower
A popular slogan says that if you get 1% better every day, you'll be 37 times better after a year (1.01 multiplied by itself 365 times is about 37.8). Skills don't work like that.
Psychologists have long debated whether learning curves are best described by a power law or an exponential, but either way improvement is fast at first and slows down with practice. Your first month learning a language or an instrument brings huge gains, and your fifth year brings smaller ones.
How much does practice explain? In 2014, Brooke Macnamara, David Hambrick and Frederick Oswald pooled studies of deliberate practice and found it explained:
| Domain | Share of differences in performance explained by deliberate practice |
|---|---|
| Games (such as chess) | 26% |
| Music | 21% |
| Sports | 18% |
| Education | 4% |
| Professions | less than 1% |
Practice matters, but less than the "10,000 hours" story suggested, and least of all in messy real-world jobs. How Practice Actually Works in the Sports series goes deeper.
What does compound with skills is combination. Each new skill creates more possible combinations with the ones you already have. A nurse who learns data analysis, or a teacher who learns video editing, becomes rare in a way that a little more of either skill alone can't achieve. That's how career capital builds up.
Relationships: slow to build, impossible to rush
Friendship takes time, and there's no shortcut. In a study published in 2018, Jeffrey Hall at the University of Kansas estimated that it takes roughly:
- 50 hours together to move from acquaintance to casual friend
- 90 hours to become a friend
- More than 200 hours to become a close friend
And hours spent working together counted for less than hours spent hanging out. These are estimates from people's own reports, not precise thresholds, but they make the point. You can't build a 30-year friendship in a hurry when you're 70. The Harvard finding that relationships at 50 predicted health at 80 is, in part, a finding about decades of small investments.
Money compounds. Health is front-loaded. Skills slow down but combine. Friendships can't be rushed. Plan for each on its own terms.
How to Make Friends as an Adult in the People & Communication series has practical steps.
Part 5 — What people regret, and when
If you want to know what matters over a lifetime, one approach is to ask people what they wish they'd done differently.
Action versus inaction
In 1994 and 1995, Thomas Gilovich and Victoria Medvec published a set of studies on the timing of regret. Using phone surveys, questionnaires and interviews, they found that people's biggest regrets tend to be things they didn't do.
That seemed to contradict earlier lab research showing that people regret bad outcomes from actions more than identical outcomes from inaction. Gilovich and Medvec resolved the conflict with time:
- In the short term, actions hurt more. You regret the rash email or the bad investment right away.
- In the long run, inactions hurt more. The class you didn't take, the person you didn't ask out, the trip you didn't make, the business you never started.
They proposed several reasons. Psychological processes tend to soften the pain of regrettable actions over time, while others sharpen the pain of inactions, and missed chances stay easier to bring to mind. A regretted action is finished; a regretted inaction stays open, an unanswered "what if."
Ideal self versus ought self
In 2018, Shai Davidai and Gilovich added another layer. In six studies, people's most enduring regrets came more often from failing to live up to their ideal self, the person they hoped to become, than from failing their ought self, their duties and responsibilities. The reason seems to be coping: when we fall short on a duty, we tend to fix it quickly. Unpursued dreams are easier to put off, so they stay unresolved.
Where regrets cluster
In 2005, Neal Roese and Amy Summerville combined 11 studies that ranked life regrets. The top six areas, in order, were:
- Education
- Career
- Romance
- Parenting
- The self
- Leisure
Their explanation is the opportunity principle: we regret most where we see the biggest chances for change. Education and career regrets top the list partly because people believe there's still something they could do about them.
A caution about deathbed lists
You may have seen lists of the "top five regrets of the dying," which come from a palliative-care worker's memoir. They're moving, and they echo some of the research, but they're one person's recollections, not a study. The academic research is more useful because it shows how regret works, not only what people say at the end.
The research doesn't say "never act cautiously." It says the costs of not trying are easy to underweight now and hard to undo later.
How to use regret without being ruled by it
- When you're unsure about something with a lot of upside and a recoverable downside, lean toward trying. Inaction tends to be regretted longer.
- Regret is useful when you can still act on it. If an old regret is about education or career, the opportunity principle suggests that it may still be partly open.
- Keep a short list of ideal-self goals alongside your duties. They're the ones that quietly slip.
Part 6 — Designing a life: what the evidence supports
Designing Your Life
The best-known structured approach to all this comes from Stanford. Bill Burnett and Dave Evans, two Stanford educators, wrote Designing Your Life (2016), drawing on their Stanford course of the same name. Stanford's Life Design Lab now runs a family of related courses.
Their central idea comes from design thinking: you can't think your way to the right life; you build your way there, through small experiments. As they put it, "Designers don't think their way forward. Designers build their way forward."
The best-known exercise is Odyssey Planning. You sketch three different five-year versions of your life, give each one a six-word title, and write down the questions it would answer. Then you rate each plan on four gauges: the resources it would need, how much you like it, your confidence that you could do it, and how coherent it is with your values. The point isn't to pick one immediately. It's to break the habit of imagining only one possible life, and then to find cheap ways to test the most interesting options. The book's word for these tests is prototyping: a conversation with someone who does the work, a short course, a weekend trial.
How good is the evidence?
Honestly, thin. The book and course are widely used, but published evaluations of Designing Your Life itself are small. One example is a 2017 thesis that studied 17 university seniors and reported increases in self-efficacy. There are a few similar pre-and-post studies of career-design courses, mostly without control groups. That doesn't mean the approach doesn't work. It means it hasn't been rigorously tested.
Several of its parts, though, line up with better-tested ideas.
| Life-design element | Related research | What the research found |
|---|---|---|
| Learn by doing, through small experiments | Ibarra's research on career changers (Part 3) | People who reinvent successfully tend to act first and gain clarity through experiments |
| Explore widely, then focus | Liu et al. (2021) on hot streaks | Exploration followed by focus preceded careers' best periods |
| Imagine a vivid, positive future | The Best Possible Self exercise: a 2019 meta-analysis of 29 studies with 2,909 people | Small-to-moderate boosts to well-being (d = 0.33), optimism (0.33) and positive feelings (0.51) |
| Turn plans into concrete next steps | Implementation intentions (if-then plans): a 2006 meta-analysis of 94 tests with 8,461 people | A medium-to-large average effect on reaching goals (d = 0.65) |
Why Most Self-Improvement Fails, the first piece in this series, covers if-then planning and its limits in detail.
The end-of-history illusion
One more finding should shape any long-range plan. In 2013, Jordi Quoidbach, Daniel Gilbert and Timothy Wilson asked more than 19,000 people aged 18 to 68 how much their personality, values and preferences had changed over the past decade, and how much they expected to change in the next decade. At every age, people said they had changed a lot in the past but would change little in the future.
Everyone, it seems, believes they've just become the person they'll be for the rest of their life, and everyone is wrong. The researchers found it had practical costs: people would overpay now for future chances to indulge their current tastes.
You'll change more in the next ten years than you expect. Design for the person you're becoming, not just the one you are.
That's the strongest argument for the life-design approach. If you can't predict who you'll be, a fixed 30-year plan is fragile. A portfolio of options, tested cheaply and revised often, is more robust.
The limits of designing
Any planning framework can make life seem more controllable than it is. Health shocks, economic downturns, caring responsibilities and plain luck shape lives at least as much as plans do. Not everyone has the money, time or safety net to "prototype" a new career. Resilience: What Decades of Research Actually Show argued that resilience belongs to systems as well as individuals, and the same is true of life design. The best plan includes buffers: savings, relationships, health and skills that keep you afloat when the plan meets reality.
Part 7 — Putting it together: a plan for the next ten years
None of this research tells you what a good life is for you. That's a question of values, and the Philosophy series takes it up from many angles. But the evidence does suggest how to play a long game, whatever you're aiming for.
Five principles from the research
- Invest in relationships as if your health depends on it, because the evidence suggests it does. Quality beats quantity, and close friendships take hundreds of hours.
- Start the money early, and keep it boring. Compounding rewards time far more than cleverness.
- Get from nothing to something on health. The first steps out of inactivity bring the biggest gains, and strength and fitness built in midlife pay out later.
- Build career capital that combines. Explore early, use small experiments to test new directions at any age, and focus once you find traction.
- Lean toward trying. Long-run regrets cluster around chances not taken and ideal selves not pursued.
A ten-year review
You could do this once a year, on a birthday or at New Year:
| Area | Question to ask |
|---|---|
| Relationships | Who are the five people I'd most want around me at 80? How many hours did I spend with each of them this year? |
| Money | Is something going into long-term savings automatically, every month? |
| Health | Am I in the "nothing" group on movement, strength, sleep or check-ups? If so, what's the smallest step out of it? |
| Career capital | What did I learn this year that combines with what I already know? Who new did I meet? How much runway do I have? |
| Regret | What am I not doing that I'd regret at 80? What's a cheap way to test it? |
| Change | How have I changed in the past year that I didn't expect? What does that suggest about the next ten? |
A word on balance
Long-game thinking has a failure mode: living entirely for a future that hasn't arrived. The research on older adults described in Aging Well suggests that one reason people grow happier with age is that they stop deferring and put more into what matters now. The best long game probably looks like that from the start: steady investments in relationships, health, money and skills, made by someone who is also paying attention to today.
The takeaway
The longest studies of adult life point to the same conclusion: the quality of your close relationships is one of the strongest predictors of a long and healthy life, and those relationships are built slowly. Average happiness often dips in midlife in cross-sectional surveys, though whether individuals follow that curve is disputed; either way, the middle years are heavy for many people and often get better. Careers come in chapters, and successful changers learn by experimenting, not by planning everything first. Money compounds, health rewards the first steps most, skills slow down but combine, and friendships can't be rushed. Over the long run, people regret what they didn't try more than what they did. Life-design methods like Odyssey Planning lack strong evidence of their own, but their key moves (small experiments, exploring before focusing, vivid future selves and concrete if-then plans) are backed by better-tested research. And because you'll change more than you expect, a flexible portfolio beats a fixed plan.
Try this: this week, draw three quick sketches of five-year futures for yourself: the path you're on, a path you'd take if that one disappeared, and a path you'd take if money and other people's opinions didn't matter. Give each a six-word title. Then pick the most intriguing of the three and set up one cheap test within a month, such as a conversation with someone living that life, a short course, or a weekend trying it. Write the test as an if-then plan: "On [day], at [time], I will [action]."
Sources & Further Reading
Sources
- Harvard Study of Adult Development: study website, "History of the Study" (Grant Study, 268 Harvard men, classes of 1939–1944; Glueck Study, 456 inner-city Boston men; second generation). Mineo, L., "Good genes are nice, but joy is better," Harvard Gazette, 11 April 2017 (four directors, relationship findings, the "age 50 / age 80" and cholesterol quotations).
- Waldinger, R. (2015). "What makes a good life? Lessons from the longest study on happiness." TEDxBeaconStreet; transcript, date and view count from TED.com (three lessons, 724 men, measurements, "workmates" quotation).
- Holt-Lunstad, J., Smith, T.B. & Layton, J.B. (2010). Social relationships and mortality risk: A meta-analytic review. PLOS Medicine, 7(7).
- Blanchflower, D.G. & Oswald, A.J. (2008). Is well-being U-shaped over the life cycle? Social Science & Medicine, 66(8). Blanchflower, D.G. (2021). Is happiness U-shaped everywhere? Age and subjective well-being in 145 countries. Journal of Population Economics, 34. Blanchflower, D.G., Graham, C.L. & Piper, A. (2023). Happiness and age: Resolving the debate. National Institute Economic Review.
- Weiss, A. et al. (2012). Evidence for a midlife crisis in great apes consistent with the U-shape in human well-being. PNAS, 109(49).
- Galambos, N.L., Krahn, H.J., Johnson, M.D. & Lachman, M.E. (2020). The U shape of happiness across the life course: Expanding the discussion. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 15(4). Bittmann, F. (2020). Beyond the U-shape: Mapping the functional form between age and life satisfaction for 81 countries. Journal of Happiness Studies. Kratz, F. & Brüderl, J. (2021). The age trajectory of happiness. PsyArXiv preprint. Bartram's critique as described in Blanchflower, Graham & Piper (2023).
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics. "Number of Jobs, Labor Market Experience, Marital Status, and Health for Those Born 1957–1964," news release, 26 August 2025 (reissued July 2026). BLS National Longitudinal Surveys, "Questions and Answers" (on career changes).
- 80,000 Hours, "Career capital" article. Newport, C. So Good They Can't Ignore You. Ibarra, H. (2003; updated 2023). Working Identity. Harvard Business School Press; book description on herminiaibarra.com.
- Liu, L., Dehmamy, N., Chown, J., Giles, C.L. & Wang, D. (2021). Understanding the onset of hot streaks across artistic, cultural, and scientific careers. Nature Communications, 12.
- Azoulay, P., Jones, B.F., Kim, J.D. & Miranda, J. (2020). Age and high-growth entrepreneurship. American Economic Review: Insights, 2(1).
- Compounding table: computed for this piece ($200 a month, 5% a year real return compounded monthly, contributions to age 65).
- Ekelund, U. et al. (2019). Dose-response associations between accelerometry measured physical activity and sedentary time and all cause mortality. BMJ, 366, l4570.
- Newell, A. & Rosenbloom, P.S. (1981). Mechanisms of skill acquisition and the law of practice. Heathcote, A., Brown, S. & Mewhort, D.J.K. (2000). The power law repealed: The case for an exponential law of practice. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 7(2).
- Macnamara, B.N., Hambrick, D.Z. & Oswald, F.L. (2014). Deliberate practice and performance in music, games, sports, education, and professions: A meta-analysis. Psychological Science, 25(8).
- Hall, J.A. (2018). How many hours does it take to make a friend? Journal of Social and Personal Relationships; thresholds as reported by University of Kansas News, March 2018.
- Gilovich, T. & Medvec, V.H. (1994). The temporal pattern to the experience of regret. JPSP, 67(3). Gilovich, T. & Medvec, V.H. (1995). The experience of regret: What, when, and why. Psychological Review, 102(2).
- Davidai, S. & Gilovich, T. (2018). The ideal road not taken: The self-discrepancies involved in people's most enduring regrets. Emotion, 18(3).
- Roese, N.J. & Summerville, A. (2005). What we regret most… and why. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 31(9).
- Burnett, B. & Evans, D. (2016). Designing Your Life. Knopf. Odyssey Planning worksheet and discussion questions, designingyour.life. Stanford Life Design Lab course list. Schofield, E.G. (2017). The Effects of Life Design Career Counseling on Public Relations Students' Self-Efficacy and Career Indecision (thesis, OhioLINK).
- Carrillo, A. et al. (2019). Effects of the Best Possible Self intervention: A systematic review and meta-analysis. PLOS ONE, 14(9). Gollwitzer, P.M. & Sheeran, P. (2006). Implementation intentions and goal achievement: A meta-analysis of effects and processes. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 38.
- Quoidbach, J., Gilbert, D.T. & Wilson, T.D. (2013). The end of history illusion. Science, 339(6115).
Go deeper
- 📘 The Good Life — Robert Waldinger & Marc Schulz. The Harvard study's director and his longtime collaborator on what eight decades of lives teach about relationships. The best single book for Part 1.
- 🎧 Robert Waldinger, "What makes a good life?" (TED). About 13 minutes, and the clearest summary of the study's findings.
- 📘 Working Identity — Herminia Ibarra. Case studies of real career changers and the "act first, clarity follows" model. Most useful if you're considering a change in your thirties, forties or later.
- 📘 Designing Your Life — Bill Burnett & Dave Evans. Practical exercises, including Odyssey Planning; read it as a toolkit, not as proven science.
- 🌐 80,000 Hours: Career capital. A clear, free guide to building options early in a career.
- 🌐 Designing Your Life: worksheets and discussion questions. The free Odyssey Planning worksheet and other templates.
- 🌐 See also, in this library: Adulthood Isn't the Finish Line, Aging Well, Compound Interest, Investing Without Gambling, How to Make Friends as an Adult, and Choosing a Career Without Guessing.